The Occupational Safety Implications of the California Residential Rooftop Solar Photovoltaic Systems Mandate

A 2018 change to the California building code mandates that new residential construction in the state include rooftop solar photovoltaic power systems beginning in 2020. As residential construction and especially work on rooftops are among the more dangerous occupations in the United States, this paper seeks to quantify the increased risks to workers as a result of this mandate. An analysis of the trends by occupation of non-fatal safety incident rates in the United States combined with a Monte Carlo simulation provide an estimate of the uncertain impact of this new mandate. Recordable safety incidents are anticipated to increase by a total of 19.6 incidents (standard deviation = 1.0 incidents) over the 2020-2029 time period as a result of this mandate. However, lessons from Germany and other industries offer potential avenues to reduce the negative social impact of this mandate.