The impact of stray cattle on foot-and-mouth disease control in India: a modeling study

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) causes $3 billion USD in annual economic losses in India alone. Out of 200 million cattle in India, over 5 million are stray, and stray cattle may be more susceptible to FMD infection than managed cattle. To our knowledge, modelling studies of FMD in India have not incorporated stray animals. Incorporating stray cattle into the modelling framework led to slight improvements in model fit measured as RMSE comparing model-derived DIVA positivity and observed DIVA positivity. Even if stray cattle are a lot more susceptible to FMD compared to managed cattle, the difference in prevalence is modest. While stray cattle are not a sizable barrier to FMD control at their current population estimates, more information on contact and movement patterns of stray cattle would allow us to better understand FMD spread.

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Work Title The impact of stray cattle on foot-and-mouth disease control in India: a modeling study
Access
Open Access
Creators
  1. Deepit Bhatia
  2. Matthew Joseph Ferrari
  3. Glen Guyver-Fletcher
  4. Mike Tildesley
Keyword
  1. foot-and-mouth disease
  2. infectious disease
  3. disease model
  4. compartmental model
  5. vertinary epidemiology
License CC BY-SA 4.0 (Attribution-ShareAlike)
Work Type Poster
Publication Date June 19, 2024
Subject
  1. Biology
Language
  1. English
Geographic Area
  1. India
Deposited July 15, 2024

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Version 1
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  • Created
  • Updated
  • Updated Keyword, Subject, Language, and 3 more Show Changes
    Keyword
    • foot-and-mouth disease, infectious disease, disease model, compartmental model, vertinary epidemiology
    Subject
    • Biology
    Language
    • English
    Geographic Area
    • India
    Description
    • Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) causes $3 billion USD in annual economic losses in India alone.
    • Out of 200 million cattle in India, over 5 million are stray, and stray cattle may be more susceptible to FMD infection than managed cattle.
    • To our knowledge, modelling studies of FMD in India have not incorporated stray animals. Incorporating stray cattle into the modelling framework led to slight improvements in model fit measured as RMSE comparing model-derived DIVA positivity and observed DIVA positivity.
    • Even if stray cattle are a lot more susceptible to FMD compared to managed cattle, the difference in prevalence is modest.
    • While stray cattle are not a sizable barrier to FMD control at their current population estimates, more information on contact and movement patterns of stray cattle would allow us to better understand FMD spread.
    Publication Date
    • 2024-06-19
  • Added Creator Deepit Bhatia
  • Added Creator Matthew Joseph Ferrari
  • Added Creator Glen Guyver-Fletcher
  • Added Creator Mike Tildesley
  • Added DEEPITBHATIA_EEID2024 Poster.pdf
  • Updated License Show Changes
    License
    • https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/
  • Published
  • Updated