# AT2017gfo: Bayesian inference and model selection of multicomponent kilonovae and constraints on the neutron star equation of state

Abstract The joint detection of the gravitational wave GW170817, of the short γ-ray burst GRB170817A and of the kilonova AT2017gfo, generated by the the binary neutron star (NS) merger observed on 2017 August 17, is a milestone in multimessenger astronomy and provides new constraints on the NS equation of state. We perform Bayesian inference and model selection on AT2017gfo using semi-analytical, multicomponents models that also account for non-spherical ejecta. Observational data favour anisotropic geometries to spherically symmetric profiles, with a log-Bayes’ factor of ∼104, and favour multicomponent models against single-component ones. The best-fitting model is an anisotropic three-component composed of dynamical ejecta plus neutrino and viscous winds. Using the dynamical ejecta parameters inferred from the best-fitting model and numerical–relativity relations connecting the ejecta properties to the binary properties, we constrain the binary mass ratio to q &lt; 1.54 and the reduced tidal parameter to $120\lt \tilde{\Lambda }\lt 1110$. Finally, we combine the predictions from AT2017gfo with those from GW170817, constraining the radius of a NS of 1.4 M⊙ to 12.2 ± 0.5 km (1σ level). This prediction could be further strengthened by improving kilonova models with numerical-relativity information.

This is a pre-copyedited, author-produced PDF of an article accepted for publication in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society following peer review. The version of record [AT2017gfo: Bayesian inference and model selection of multicomponent kilonovae and constraints on the neutron star equation of state. Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society 505, 2 p1661-1677 (2021)] is available online at: https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/stab1287.

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Work Title AT2017gfo: Bayesian inference and model selection of multicomponent kilonovae and constraints on the neutron star equation of state Open Access Matteo BreschiAlbino PeregoSebastiano BernuzziWalter Del PozzoVsevolod NedoraDavid RadiceDiego Vescovi Article Oxford University Press (OUP) May 12, 2021 10.1093/mnras/stab1287 Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society May 27, 2022

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• <jats:p>The joint detection of the gravitational wave GW170817, of the short γ-ray burst GRB170817A and of the kilonova AT2017gfo, generated by the the binary neutron star (NS) merger observed on 2017 August 17, is a milestone in multimessenger astronomy and provides new constraints on the NS equation of state. We perform Bayesian inference and model selection on AT2017gfo using semi-analytical, multicomponents models that also account for non-spherical ejecta. Observational data favour anisotropic geometries to spherically symmetric profiles, with a log-Bayes’ factor of ∼104, and favour multicomponent models against single-component ones. The best-fitting model is an anisotropic three-component composed of dynamical ejecta plus neutrino and viscous winds. Using the dynamical ejecta parameters inferred from the best-fitting model and numerical–relativity relations connecting the ejecta properties to the binary properties, we constrain the binary mass ratio to q &amp;lt; 1.54 and the reduced tidal parameter to $120\lt \tilde{\Lambda }\lt 1110$. Finally, we combine the predictions from AT2017gfo with those from GW170817, constraining the radius of a NS of 1.4 M⊙ to 12.2 ± 0.5 km (1σ level). This prediction could be further strengthened by improving kilonova models with numerical-relativity information.</jats:p>
• The joint detection of the gravitational wave GW170817, of the short γ-ray burst GRB170817A and of the kilonova AT2017gfo, generated by the the binary neutron star (NS) merger observed on 2017 August 17, is a milestone in multimessenger astronomy and provides new constraints on the NS equation of state. We perform Bayesian inference and model selection on AT2017gfo using semi-analytical, multicomponents models that also account for non-spherical ejecta. Observational data favour anisotropic geometries to spherically symmetric profiles, with a log-Bayes’ factor of ∼104, and favour multicomponent models against single-component ones. The best-fitting model is an anisotropic three-component composed of dynamical ejecta plus neutrino and viscous winds. Using the dynamical ejecta parameters inferred from the best-fitting model and numerical–relativity relations connecting the ejecta properties to the binary properties, we constrain the binary mass ratio to q &amp;lt; 1.54 and the reduced tidal parameter to $120\lt \tilde{\Lambda }\lt 1110$. Finally, we combine the predictions from AT2017gfo with those from GW170817, constraining the radius of a NS of 1.4 M⊙ to 12.2 ± 0.5 km (1σ level). This prediction could be further strengthened by improving kilonova models with numerical-relativity information.