Statistical downscaling for precipitation projections in West Africa

The West Africa region (5 ∘ to 20 ∘ N and 10 ∘ E to 20 ∘ W) is particularly vulnerable to climate change due to a combination of unique geographic features, meteorological conditions, and socio-economic factors. Drastic changes in precipitation (e.g., droughts or floods) in the region can have dramatic impacts on rain-fed agriculture, water availability, and disease risks for the region’s population. Quantifying these risks requires localized climate projections at a higher resolution than is generally available from general circulation models. Using self-organizing maps, we produce station-based downscaled precipitation projections for medium and high-emission climate scenarios for this region. Compared to historical observations, the downscaled values are able to match the historical range of the distribution, and recreate the seasonal variability for the inland portions of the region, but struggle with the seasonal cycle along the coast. We find a decrease in the interior Sahel region by an average of 10% by 2100 under the high greenhouse gas-emission scenario of Shared Socioeonomic Pathway 5 - 8.5. Precipitation decreases in the Sahel are primarily driven by reductions in the number of rainy days during the wet season, rather than by consistent decreases in the magnitude of the precipitation amounts or decreases in the average length of the wet season.

This version of the article has been accepted for publication, after peer review (when applicable) and is subject to Springer Nature’s AM terms of use, but is not the Version of Record and does not reflect post-acceptance improvements, or any corrections. The Version of Record is available online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04637-4

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Work Title Statistical downscaling for precipitation projections in West Africa
Access
Open Access
Creators
  1. Andrew Polasky
  2. Jenni L. Evans
  3. Jose D. Fuentes
Keyword
  1. Climate change
  2. West Africa
  3. Downscaling
  4. Self-organizing maps
License In Copyright (Rights Reserved)
Work Type Article
Publisher
  1. Theorectical and Applied Climatology
Publication Date September 29, 2023
Publisher Identifier (DOI)
  1. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04637-4
Deposited October 07, 2024

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Version 1
published

  • Created
  • Added west_africa_downscaling-1.pdf
  • Added Creator Andrew Polasky
  • Added Creator Jenni L. Evans
  • Added Creator Jose D. Fuentes
  • Published
  • Updated
  • Updated Keyword, Publication Date Show Changes
    Keyword
    • Climate change, West Africa, Downscaling, Self-organizing maps
    Publication Date
    • 2024-01-01
    • 2023-09-29