Deep learning insights into suspended sediment concentrations across the conterminous United States: Strengths and limitations

Suspended sediment concentration (SSC) is a crucial indicator for aquatic ecosystems and reservoir management but is challenging to predict at large scales. It is unclear whether SSC is predictable using macroscopic environmental attributes and forcings. This study tested the feasibility of deep-network-based models to predict daily SSC at basin outlets given only basin-averaged forcings, readily-available physiographic attributes, and streamflow (from observation or model). We trained long short-term memory (LSTM) deep networks both separately for each of the 377 sites across the conterminous United States (CONUS) (termed “local models”), and on all the sites collectively (Whole-CONUS). The Whole-CONUS and local models presented median coefficient of determination (R2) values of 0.63 and 0.52, respectively. This comparison agrees with previously acknowledged “data synergy” effects for LSTM models, where more data from more sites can help improve predictions overall. Furthermore, the continental-scale analysis provided a wealth of insights about SSC patterns. Both local and Whole-CONUS models tended to be more successful where SSC-streamflow correlations (Rs-q) were high − typically in the humid Eastern US − and with lower SSC. Low Rs-q basins were often found in the arid Southwest with higher SSC. The highly-nonlinear SSC-streamflow relationships seem related to seasonality, basin size, and heterogeneity of land cover and rainfall within the basins, suggesting these basins need to be simulated at higher spatial resolution and may require additional inputs related to SSC induced by seasonality. The Whole-CONUS model also performed well for spatial extrapolation (basins not included in the training dataset, median R2 = 0.55), supporting large-scale modeling efforts. These state-of-the-art results using only minimal inputs suggest data-driven approaches can exploit the natural coevolution of sediment processes and the environment to support sediment modeling.

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