Assessing the Effect of COVID-19 Carceral Downsizing on Crime Rates in Pennsylvania

Groundwork: During the COVID-19 pandemic, PA correctional facilities instituted strategic downsizing polices. Opponents of downsizing raised concerns that releasing offenders would increase crime rates. Our previous research found that downsizing in jails was unrelated to crime rates in five PA counties and saved taxpayers millions of dollars.

Question: Do these findings generalize to the state level?

Approach: Interrupted time series analysis of state-level crime rates pre- and post-downsizing as reported by the FBI and official state prison population data from the PA DOC.