Surface Ocean pH Forecasting Until The Year 2200 Based on Extrapolated Radiative Forcing and Carbon Dioxide Data Sets

Surface ocean pH forecasts from present-day to the year 2200 were generated based on linear regression lines of available data. Data sets analyzed include radiative forcing values fitted to three RCP scenarios (8.5, 6, and 4.5), worldwide averaged gaseous carbon dioxide concentrations, and surface ocean pH. After linear regression lines were generated for their respective data sets, complex unit conversion pathways propounded by other researchers enabled the transformation of the extrapolated data sets to surface ocean pH forecasts. These conversions followed specific pathways: (1) RCP-specific extrapolated radiative forcing data to gaseous carbon dioxide concentrations to a pH forecast; (2) extrapolated carbon dioxide concentrations to a pH forecast; (3) current surface ocean pH data sets to extrapolated hydrogen ion concentrations to a pH forecast. Many marine ecology studies on ocean acidification consider a surface ocean pH below 7.7 as catastrophic to marine life. This research highlights the detrimental pH destiny of an RCP8.5 scenario, and emphasizes the necessary shift to lower RCP pathways.

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Work Title Surface Ocean pH Forecasting Until The Year 2200 Based on Extrapolated Radiative Forcing and Carbon Dioxide Data Sets
Access
Open Access
Creators
  1. Nicholas Lees
  2. Andrew Lees
Keyword
  1. RCP
  2. Ocean acidification
  3. pH forecasting
  4. Carbon dioxide
  5. Radiative forcing
License In Copyright (Rights Reserved)
Work Type Research Paper
Acknowledgments
  1. Dr. Gregory Jenkins
Publication Date 2024
Deposited February 20, 2024

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Version 1
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  • Created
  • Updated
  • Updated Acknowledgments Show Changes
    Acknowledgments
    • Doctor Gregory Jenkins
  • Added Creator Nicholas Lees
  • Added Surface Ocean pH Forecasting Manuscript.pdf
  • Updated Publication Date, License Show Changes
    Publication Date
    • Unpublished
    • 2024
    License
    • https://rightsstatements.org/page/InC/1.0/
  • Published
  • Updated Keyword Show Changes
    Keyword
    • RCP, Ocean acidification, pH forecasting, Carbon dioxide, Radiative forcing
  • Added Creator Andrew Lees
  • Updated Acknowledgments Show Changes
    Acknowledgments
    • Doctor Gregory Jenkins
    • Dr. Gregory Jenkins
  • Updated